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The IPCC Summary for Policymakers WG1 report has just been released. You can download it here.

I will be going through it and the technical summary (when it comes out) over the next few days. An initial glance shows that we need to do more to reduce emissions. A whole lot more.

The press conference is on YouTube:

This report will have a lot more space devoted to regional changes. There is a fabulous interactive atlas which allows you to drill down and across in all sorts of ways.

There is so much to work through. Here are some initial points that might interest you:

  • It’s still possible to keep global warming to <2C if we get to zero emissions by 2050. If we keep the same rate, we’ll prob hit 2C by mid-century.
  • “Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes”
  • There has been an increase in the lower bound of climate sensitivity, which is now more confidently estimated at between 2C and 5C, with a “likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C (high confidence), compared to 1.5°C to 4.5°C in AR5, which did not provide a best estimate.”
  • “Global warming of 1.5°C relative to 1850-1900 would be exceeded during the 21st century under the intermediate, high and very high scenarios considered in this report”
  • “It is virtually certain that the Arctic will continue to warm more than global surface temperature, with high confidence above two times the rate of global warming.”
  • Of particular interest to Australia & USA, it is very likely droughts and floods will worsen, amplified by ENSO: “It is very likely that rainfall variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is projected to be amplified by the second half of the 21st century in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.”
  • As I’ve long expected, the oceans and surface won’t keep absorbing CO2 at the current rate: “under the intermediate scenario that stabilizes atmospheric CO2 concentrations this century (SSP2-4.5), the rates of CO2 taken up by the land and oceans are projected to decrease in the second half of the 21st century”.

The current pledges aren’t enough for safety. We need to do more.

Andrew Dessler summed it up well, if a little crudely, on Twitter:

Further reading

There are lots of articles in the media already. Journos got advanced copy (bloggers didn’t). Also other sources.

It would be great if you would add more links in the comments.





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